Davos 2026: Chaos, Power Shifts, and Illusions Lost

The themes of the World Economic Forum have always reflected the spirit of the times and the mindset of global elites.

The 2026 edition was no exception to this rule. Following the call for a Great Reset in 2025, or the fear of obsolescence in the face of AI in 2025, it was very clearly the fear of chaos and the reshaping of the world that dominated the WEF 2026, under the anxious call for "a spirit of dialogue."

What better illustration, perhaps, than the speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, lamenting the disappearance of the illusions of the old world: "We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition."

A fear of chaos from the world's reshaping that reigned beneath the surface in the hushed corridors and the agreed-upon round tables of the annual gathering of globalizing elites—marked by record attendance, yet whose sessions clearly illustrated the scale of ongoing upheaval.

• Geopolitical rupture clearly illustrated by the US's new National Security Strategy, establishing a rebalancing of power dynamics with China and Russia, the recentering and assumed control of the US over the Western Hemisphere—even if significant issues remain in the Middle East and Europe. All of this prefiguring a new Yalta.
• Technological rupture, with the acceleration of the agentic AI revolution, rapid advances in robotics, the rise of New Space and the slow but steady progress of biotech, as evidenced by the omnipresence of tech moguls at Davos, who multiplied sessions on AGI, energy abundance, and even immortality.
• Economic rupture, with slow but inexorable de-dollarization, the rise of stablecoins, and the time bomb of public debt, with speakers emphasizing that despite worldwide growth forecasts of 3.3%, there is a crisis of public confidence, the collapse of Western middle classes, and an explosion in inequality.

Even though some sessions continued droning on about the old chestnuts of climate change, one could clearly sense that the world's pivot was underway. DEI and the SDGs have nearly disappeared from Davos's agenda.

Aside from a few rearguard actions, we're returning to the realpolitik of confrontation and business.

Does this mean the horizon is brightening?

Far from it. In the face of ongoing tectonic rumblings and persistent blind spots—especially in Europe, where the gap between the people and the elites widens by the day (as the US security strategy starkly highlights)—what reigns more than ever is total geo-economic warfare and the struggle for resources, as we emphasized in Hyperwar.

After the 2025 WEF edition, where Trump had contented himself with a video intervention before globalizing elites disoriented by the scale of his victory, the American president came this time in force, with the forum's largest delegation, and a speech, as is his habit, provocative.

His strength?

• To the great disappointment of doomsayers, tariffs did not trigger the catastrophe many had predicted, allowing him to boast of solid economic results—even as the middle-class crisis continues in the US and the transition to a new economy looks more complex than ever (see our post: A Crisis in Disguise).
• Despite tensions sparked by the Epstein affair, divisions following the murder of Charlie Kirk, and the guerrilla tactics of Democratic activists in blue states—where the seeds of civil confrontation remain—Trump has so far managed to continue to rally his MAGA base and Big Tech, walking a tightrope between contradictory lobbies.
• To the indignation of the well-meaning, his openly predatory international approach—peace through strength, merely formalizing long-standing US policy under the banner of democracy—seems to be working, with masterstrokes in Gaza and Venezuela, even if Iran still eludes him.

At Davos, the most striking initiative was undoubtedly Trump's announcement of his "Board of Peace."

An initiative that seems to acknowledge the rise of the BRICS and the end of American dominance by establishing a new international organization under US control, and especially under Trump himself. With likely major ulterior motives in terms of personal business (1). Trump remains, above all, a businessman.

At the end of 2025, a remark by Susie Wiles—comparing Trump’s personality to that of an alcoholic who, under the influence, has absolute confidence in himself—caused an uproar (2)

On closer inspection, one cannot help but be struck by the power of that image.
A self-made man in real estate and media, who made and lost fortunes several times, always managing to bounce back; defying all predictions to become the surprise winner of the 2016 presidential election; overcoming the judicial guerrilla warfare of the establishment bent on removing him; very likely seeing his reelection stolen in 2020; surviving four years of relentless pressure to bury him in scandals; enduring three assassination attempts—only to return stronger in 2025—Trump is, whatever one thinks of him, one of those men who leave a mark on history.

Trump, Susie Wiles notes, “operates with a view that there’s nothing he can’t do. Nothing, zero, nothing.”

Revival of the Monroe Doctrine (or now "Donroe"), control over Greenland, vassalization of Europe, reshaping of the Middle East: Trump's ambitions are clear, even if his tactic of coups d'éclat, threats, then reconciliation, drawn from the art of the deal, unsettles the Western elites who had grown accustomed to the no-less predatory but more discreet practices of international diplomacy.

Will Trump succeed, or deepen global chaos?

Many point to the sword of Damocles of the midterms, whose prospects indeed remain uncertain, and whose loss could weaken his administration and invigorate his enemies. 

Given his personality, the principal risk for Trump might lie elsewhere: himself. That is, the risk of hubris. Of losing touch with reality in the flood of announcements and calculated provocations with which he inundates the world's media daily, reminding us that he was a wrestling and reality TV mogul.

“We’re an empire now", said Karl Rove, then a senior advisor to President George W. Bush, in 2002, "and when we act, we create our own reality."

At the heart of a world now hyperconnected, saturated in real time, 24/7, with information and messages on social media, rarely has an American president had so much power and personal inclination to create his own hyper-reality, or even alternative truths, to impose his narrative and structure the realm of possibility.

We saw it once again in Davos. Even as, day after day, behind the virtual screens of finance and globalized media, the realities of physics and geopolitics continue to reassert themselves.

As Peter Turchin has emphasized, there is a structural history. That which is driven by great socio-economic cycles. But there is also contingent history. That which is made by men, whose chaotic movements can alter the trajectory of worlds, and ultimately render the short term unpredictable.

For now, Trump is riding the wave of structural history. The "Fourth Turning", predicted by Strauss-Howe, is here. And Trump has managed to make himself its hero.

Yet everything remains suspended on the uncertainties of the midterms. And especially on those of Trump himself.

The coming months promise to be fascinating….

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_{'In the Midst of Chaos' is part of our 'Future Frontlines' series. The other posts of this series can be found here >}  

_{(1) Created under the auspices of a United Nations resolution for Gaza’s reconstruction, the Board of Peace presents a charter with a far broader international mandate than Gaza alone. It will enjoy the legal status and privileges of an international organization, along with a substantial budget—each member reportedly contributing $1 billion—placed largely at the discretion of Donald Trump himself. Beyond the immediate reconstruction effort, such a structure could open significant business and influence opportunities for the US President and his family, potentially extending well beyond the end of his mandate....} 

_{(2) The in-depth interview, “Susie Wiles, JD Vance, and the ‘Junkyard Dogs’: The White House Chief of Staff on Trump’s Second Term,” is available here (part I) and here (part II). While the article adopts a partisan tone—later challenged by Susie Wiles—it nonetheless provides interesting insight into the Trump administration’s close inner circle.}