Foresee megatrends: decode tomorrow

What will the future bring? For millennia, thinkers have tried to predict the future. Although no definitive foresight blueprint exists, recent innovations in analyzing societal dynamics offer powerful models to anticipate the evolution of complex societies, as highlighted in our futuremastery manifesto.

The entanglement of history cycles

Our Vision: History is neither purely linear nor entirely cyclical; it’s a spiral intertwining generational cycles (as we explain in "Déjà Vu") and secular cycle (as we detail in "History's Formula")—both driven by human psychology—and disruptive shifts in ages caused by paradigm-changing technological innovations (as we highlight in "Escape Velocity"). This entanglement results in a global ascension move we envision in "The Day After: Foreseeing 2060+." Today, we stand at the confluence of the generational and secular crises facing today's hegemon—the US—and at the height of the digital age's economic disruptions. All these point to a decade of deep polycrisis, within a larger transformation journey timeframe which we call the Global Transition Crisis.

The 4 Structural Forces

What drives these historical evolutions? One after another, cycles evolve through the interplay of four strategic forces: demographics, resources, geopolitics, and technology. While economic cycles are primarily driven by the evolving dynamic between population and resources, mediated through geopolitical governance, one force can profoundly change all parameters of the equation: technological innovation. This factor is particularly strategic in our modern era, where the exponential acceleration of digital transformation provokes deep tectonic shifts, as we highlight in "10x Moonshots".

In the midst of a Global Transition Crisis

Where are we now? According to our models, the current Western generational crisis, which started in 2009 and usually results in deep economic troubles, social unrest, and hybrid wars, is expected to last until around 2029. While it should be followed by a 20-year period of reconstruction and K-shaped recovery, the US has entered in parallel the disintegrative period of its secular cycle. Our entry into the exponential phase of the digital transformation S-curve, with the next one already on the horizon, will add to the turmoil, already marked by deep troubles—as we show in "Zombieland"—and the risk of Thucydides Trap conflicts. All this points to a period of deep world transformation, uncertainty, and social troubles until the middle of the century, as we highlight in "Uncharted Territory."

Future Frontlines

Which are the ongoing strategic shifts? History unfolds through both long-term structural movements and short-term, chaotic surges. While long-term scenarios can be envisioned, short-term events are inherently unpredictable. For us, in the midst of today's global transition crisis, six strategic trends are currently unfolding:

What can we predict for 2025? While 2024 was marked by dystopian reminiscences of 1984, how better to describe our current state than that of quantum uncertainty everywhere? Between growth and collapse, war and peace, humans and machines—all widening the spectrum of possibilities.

While America is pivoting with Trump to an America First strategy, isn't there a strategic abyss separating the new and the old world? With the EU clinging to an outdated paradigm, risking a dramatic antagonistic flight forward to war and fragmentation scenarios, with only a narrow path to reform in between?

As anticipated, 2024 has been a pivotal year, with 3 geopolitical, societal, and technological shifts. Within them, Trump’s victory has been a turning point in the US, one that occurs roughly every 80 years. Why did he win? And may his alliance between populism and big tech reshuffle the geostrategic cards?

Nearly 80 years after the publication of 1984, is the world so different from the one imagined by Orwell? With the temptations for eternal conflict, rising censorship against "disinformation," and the surge of hyper-surveillance panopticons? Should we resign ourselves? Or can we find in progress multiple sources for hope?

In the wake of the COVID pandemic, the World Economic Forum (WEF) advocated for a "Great Reset". Fast forward five years, that reset is finally happening, but in the opposite direction of what globalist leaders had envisioned. As the world enters a new global paradigm, will we have the courage to face change?

For years, we have foreseen that massive indebtedness and QEs will inevitably lead to bubble bursts and currency debasements, potentially causing a financial crash and a lost decade ahead. Yet, stock indices have rarely been so high. Are our times different from previous cycles? Or do indices uncover a "Crisis in Disguise"?

The Long View

Beyond the next decades, can we discern long-term trajectories? And which threats and opportunities may they bring us?

Could it be that, beyond a certain level, progress reaches a point of diminishing returns? Are the current falling birth rates we observe in our OECD megacities just a symptom of cyclical decay? Or are there more worrying Universe 25 syndromes beneath, putting our civilizations at risk?

Is sentient AI closer than we think? Could the mismatch between millions of years of genetic evolution and decades of digital revolution lead to dramatic upheavals, making humans obsolete unless we hybridize with machines? At risk of falling into strange cargo cults, lost in the "Uncanny Valley" of digital mirages?

How will we live tomorrow? Most thinkers have considered the future from a political, economic, or ecological perspective. Yet, why not consider it from the perspective of our human struggle for progress, following the hierarchy of human needs? And if we do so, what might be the foreseeable course of progress?

Although the future emerges chaotically rather than deterministically, we believe that the combination of evolutionary psychology and disruptive technology thinking gives clear insights into the future. Based on this thinking, can we discern recurring patterns over centuries, giving us the direction of things to come?

In chaotic times, the secret is not just to prepare for the probable. It is to adapt to the unexpected. How to proceed? This is what we cover in our "Adapt to the Unexpected" section, dedicated to antifragile strategies.

WHICH MEGATREND WILL DRIVE YOUR FUTURE?

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